Graphic shows why Jimmy Garoppolo can never start again for 49ers – East Bay Times


Early in the second quarter, facing a third and 3 from their own 32-yard line, 49ers rookie quarterback Trey Lance threw a first pass to Brandon Aiyuk.

In the process, he did something that Jimmy Garoppolo hadn’t been able to do all year.

No, Aiyuk’s completion was not unique, although I would forgive you for thinking so.

Instead, it was the kind of pitch Lance throws – a laser beam outside of the numbers, into the second-year catcher’s breadhouse with a defender draped over him.

It was a great time throw. And it’s not me saying it, it’s the NFL Pro Football Focus scoring service.

The first connection with Aiyuk was one of two Big Time Throws (the real name of the stat) that Lance had on Sunday against Arizona, giving him two more than Garoppolo this season.

There is another statistic of Pro Football Focus tracks for quarterbacks – games worthy of turnover. Much like BTT, it’s subjective, but the site is pretty conservative with praise, so I’m not concerned about false positives.

Lance had a TWP on Sunday – his first quarter interception. There was no sugar coating that one.

Garoppolo has seven this season. In fact, 5.3% of his shots this season resulted in a game worthy of a turnover.

It’s the worst rating in the NFL, although rookie Trevor Lawrence is neck and neck with him.

Combine the two stats – big throws and turnover-worthy plays – on one graph and you’ve got a matrix that defines what it takes to be a great quarterback in the modern NFL.

The rules have changed. The game has fundamentally changed as a result. The contrast between football in 2015 and today is stark, so forget about the sport you knew in the 1900s. Add the supreme level of talent (ie size and speed) of level players. of skill in this modern age and a good quarterback can be broken down with a simple equation:

Risk vs reward.

And when it comes to that, Garoppolo is in a league of its own.

Ben Baldwin, who works for Athletic and is one of Twitter’s leading open source data statisticians, make such a table.

In the upper right corner are the quarterbacks that make big shots without the risk of turning around: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray.

The lower right corner – the risk-takers quadrant – features Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston and Josh Allen.

It all checks out, doesn’t it?

Then there are the “boring” quarters at the top left. They don’t risk much, but they don’t threaten to return the ball either. Think of Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins ​​and Teddy Bridgewater.

The lower left quadrant was simply labeled “bad”. These are the guys who always threaten to turn the ball around and give it little advantage. Rookies like Lawrence and Zach Wilson are in this quadrant. As are Ben Roethlisberger, Taylor Heineke and Jared Goff.

And a mile from all of these guys, including the lousy Goff, is Garoppolo.

The 49ers veteran is the only quarterback in the NFL with a significant zero pitching percentage. This, plus his percentage of the NFL’s biggest game.

He’s almost off the map. All risks, no rewards.

And that graph includes stats for San Francisco’s Week 1 game against Detroit. Thank goodness too – Baldwin should have zoomed out if this game, where Garoppolo had no games worthy of turnover, by PFF, was not in the dataset.

I don’t know what Garoppolo fans are clinging to right now to justify doing it all over again. Organization at the line of scrimmage? Either way, those intangible, unquantifiable things people make up don’t matter, as long as this chart says he’s the worst quarterback in the NFL.

And make no mistake, it is.

The risk-reward chart doesn’t even take into account what a quarterback can do with their legs. Lance ran 89 yards on Sunday to become San Francisco’s top rusher. Can Garoppolo do this?

Now Lance barely set the world on fire on Sunday – he’s in the wrong quadrant as well, though he does encroach on boredom – but after this week off there’s no good reason to return to a quarterback along with 35 other career debuts whose game this year is in a class of its own futility.

The modern NFL is defined by the head coach and the quarterback. Yes, there are 52 other players and coaches, but the best teams in the league have great quarterbacks and great head coaches.

The Niners have neither at the moment. Shanahan’s play appeal has lost its zeal against a league that faces its kind of attack almost every week. (Three of the four NFC West teams, for example, run an offensive program outside of the Shanahaneque zone.) And the Niners quarterback is either a veteran the whole league knows how to beat, resulting in rookie mistakes. , or a real beginner.

At least the latter has an advantage.

Shanahan has an extra week to prepare for a huge game against the Colts on October 24. He has the opportunity to change the course of this season.

And the data going into this game is clear – he can’t win with Garoppolo. Once upon a time, when everything was going well, he could. But it’s not the here and now and that’s all that matters when trying to avoid a fourth straight loss and a lost season.

Now, can Shanahan win with Lance?

May be.

The smart decision would be to take the plunge – commit to Lance for the rest of the season – and find out what’s what.

Worst case scenario, Lance is better prepared for next season – a watershed year for Shanahan in the Bay.

Best of all, the 49ers finally have someone who can lead them to victory, not just take a spin.


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